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"The founder took a break, and ADA also crashed" Hoskinson dropped a "TTYL" on X and disappeared. Meanwhile, $ADA fell below $0.2 for the first time in five years. It has dropped nearly 70% in the past year, evaporating over 90% from its all-time high. The founder slipped away, and the ecosystem started to bleed. TapTools operated for four years, but the management left, and it completely shut down two weeks later. JPG.Store permanently closed just last month, and even the annual summit was canceled due to missing 1.46% of the votes. Hoskinson warned about a "wave of failures" at the beginning of the year, yet the ecosystem was still stuck debating whether the treasury should allocate funds. This crash is draining both internally and externally. The bear market environment is one aspect, but the deadlock in community governance is the root problem. If treasury funds remain stuck in the voting process, TapTools won’t be the last. For ADA to rebound, someone needs to catch these sell-offs first and then get governance to reach consensus. Until then, bottom-fishing is a gamble with low odds of success. #星球日报

"The stronger the employment, the closer the rate hike: Does BTC still dare to catch the falling knife?" ADP added 122,000 jobs, hitting a new high since January 2025. JOLTS job openings also surged to 7.62 million, a two-year high. Employment data has continuously exceeded expectations, but the market is not excited; instead, alarms are being raised. Dallas Fed's Logan clearly stated that the labor market is generally balanced, but inflation has not fallen back to the 2% target, and monetary policy "is not restraining the economy"—rate hikes may be needed later this year. Cleveland Fed's Harker was more direct: if inflation remains high, "action may be taken soon." Expectations for rate hikes have consequently heated up—CME data shows the probability of a July rate hike has risen from nearly zero to about 8.4%. U.S. Treasuries immediately faced massive sell-offs. BTC took the hardest hit, falling below $63,000, with over $25 billion in futures open interest evaporating and funding rates turning negative. "Good employment data is bad news," this logic is expected to continue for another two to three months. For the Fed to return to a rate-cutting path, core PCE needs to drop below 3% for several consecutive months, while nonfarm payroll additions must be below 75,000 and wage growth slows. Friday's nonfarm payroll data is the last key card before the June FOMC meeting. If nonfarm payrolls remain strong, the rate hike sword hanging over $BTC's head will only draw closer. #美国ADP新增就业12.2万人

"Trump is not in a hurry, no results expected before the FOMC" Trump said: As long as no Americans die, sporadic conflicts are acceptable. The subtext is straightforward — the U.S. side is not rushing negotiations. In Iran's four-stage plan, the second stage involves talks about the Strait of Hormuz. Before the first stage ceasefire is implemented, the blockade of the strait remains a bargaining chip. Communication between both sides has not stopped, but negotiations have reached a deadlock with no substantial progress. Military actions are escalating simultaneously: in the early hours of June 3, Iran launched missile strikes on the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters, and the U.S. conducted airstrikes on targets on Iran's Qeshm Island. A typical "fight while talking" situation, with no breakthroughs on key issues. Meanwhile, Iran is advancing legislation for the management system of the Strait of Hormuz, establishing a dedicated working group, and the blockade threat continues to intensify. Compensation issues remain deadlocked, and Trump's "tolerate conflict" statement has actually reduced the urgency of U.S. negotiations. The FOMC meeting will be held June 16-17, less than two weeks away. The first stage ceasefire is still uncertain, let alone opening the strait. The U.S. is not in a hurry, and Iran cannot get the concessions it wants. Don't expect clear results before the FOMC. Oil prices remain high, and expectations for rate hikes won't ease. #美伊谈判：四阶段框架已提，油价仍高位

"Kalshi is just the starting point; the real reshuffle happens when the giants enter the market." On June 3rd, Kalshi officially launched the first CFTC-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract in the U.S. But essentially, it is just a "pathfinder." What truly determines the landscape is when giants like CME and Nasdaq, who hold massive institutional funds, enter the market. CME has clearly stated plans to launch Bitcoin perpetual contracts by the end of 2026. If CME joins the battle, the landscape will be completely transformed. Currently, Binance and OKX together hold about 48% of the global perpetual market share. In 2025, the global annual trading volume of perpetual contracts has reached $90 trillion, accounting for three-quarters of the total crypto derivatives trading volume. This market is too enticing. The entry of Wall Street giants means institutional funds will massively allocate to perpetual products within compliant channels. At present, Kalshi is a "signal flare," but the real "reshuffle" will occur when the giants enter — whether in offshore markets or the traditionally conservative CME itself, a tough battle awaits. #美国首个合规BTC永续期货正式上线 $BTC

"2.99 million first-day inflow, Grayscale's strong hand is not yet fully played" HYPG fee rate is 0.29%, the lowest in the US, with an additional 2.2% staking yield. Seed capital injected about $115 million, ETF first-day NAV was $25.93. But the first-day net inflow was only $2.99 million. 21Shares THYP had a first-day inflow of $1.2 million, Bitwise BHYP once attracted $19 million in a single day. As products from the same Grayscale family, this start is not bad, but not spectacular either. After all, $HYPE related ETFs have accumulated net inflows exceeding $141 million. The core issue is not the first day—the real test is the nearly $684 million unlocking on June 6. In the past 48 hours, Galaxy Digital and a mysterious whale have absorbed nearly $29 million. Institutions are positioning in advance to digest this selling pressure, and Grayscale ETF’s low-fee channel just provides the lowest-cost entry path for long-term funds. The $2.99 million on the first day is just an appetizer; the real pricing anchor will come after the unlocking. #HYPE：Grayscale ETF launched today, institutions accumulating from multiple channels

"A valuation of 965 billion, what is Anthropic rushing for?" On June 4th, it was confirmed that Anthropic selected Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to lead its IPO, with a possible listing as early as October. At the end of May, it just raised 65 billion, pushing its valuation to 965 billion. Three months ago, it was still 380 billion, more than doubling. The numbers are indeed impressive: Q1 revenue of 4.8 billion, Q2 expected to exceed 10.9 billion, annualized revenue soaring to 47 billion, and Q2 also has an expected operating profit of 559 million. But the bubble is also visible. Based on 4.4 billion annualized revenue, the price-to-sales ratio is about 22x — not top-tier for tech stocks. But based on quarterly profit annualized, the implied P/E ratio is about 440x. Mature tech companies range from 15-30x, and the strongest AI infrastructure stocks are only around 40-50x. The 965 billion valuation has already priced in a perfect growth trajectory for ten years. Why rush to go public? The most important reason is not a lack of money — it’s to get ahead of OpenAI and set the financial reporting standards for AI companies. Whoever goes public first defines "how to calculate revenue and profit." SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI together represent trillion-level IPOs competing, while the total US IPO financing this year is only 45 billion. Those who eat pork first get the meat; those who come later get the bones. This wave of IPOs is not about money, it’s about control over definitions. #Anthropic: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead, earliest listing in October $ANTHROPIC $OPENAI $SPCX

"Interest rate hike shifts from 'possible' to 'highly likely'?" May ADP added 122,000 jobs, exceeding expectations. Job vacancies also surged to 7.62 million, a nearly two-year high. Logan directly stated: rate hikes are possible this year. Reason: current rates simply can't suppress the economy. The market reacted quickly: the probability of a rate hike in July jumped. On Polymarket, the probability of a rate hike this year approaches 41%. Friday's non-farm payrolls will be the key verdict. If non-farm again exceeds expectations, the rate hike expectation will be locked in. For $BTC, the more the rate hike heats up, the more pressure it faces. On Wednesday, BTC already fell to $63,000. Before non-farm, this sword still hangs overhead. #美国ADP新增就业12.2万人

"Talk is talk, blockade is blockade, oil prices are hard to come down" Iran proposes a four-stage plan: first ceasefire, then open the strait. This means: if the first stage is not implemented, the blockade remains a bargaining chip. The negotiation team stops talks at will, missiles strike at will. In the early hours of June 3, a US military base was hit by Iranian missiles. Brent oil prices fluctuate between $93-$96, only 3% away from $100. The market is not foolish—if the agreement is truly implemented, the premium could drop by $10-15. But if the blockade becomes real, oil prices will instantly break $100. The ceasefire in southern Lebanon is only partial; the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Don’t expect oil prices to fall in the short term. Either real fighting or a real deal. Those standing in the middle are all passive. #美伊谈判：四阶段框架已提，油价仍高位

"The door to compliance has opened, will offshore funds return?" On June 3rd, Kalshi officially launched the first CFTC-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract in the United States. In 2025, the global perpetual contract trading volume is expected to exceed $60 trillion, a massive amount of funds operating long-term outside regulatory frameworks. The CFTC's approval aims to guide trading volume from offshore platforms back to the U.S. Coinbase was also approved on the same day, and Kraken announced it will follow within 30 days. The onshore compliance channel is opening. However, there are obstacles to institutional funds returning. The advantages of offshore platforms—high leverage, flexible margin, and low entry barriers—are difficult to replace in the short term. Meanwhile, the CFTC implements case-by-case reviews for all new perpetual products, and approval efficiency will limit the speed of product diversification. More importantly, compliance means stricter risk controls, margin, and position limits, which will deter some offshore users with high risk tolerance. In the short term, the onshore market will struggle to divert offshore funds. In the long term, the legal certainty and institutional trust brought by compliance are gradually being established. The core of this competition is not "who can be faster," but "who can find a balance between safety and efficiency." Currently, offshore platforms still hold the advantage, but the appeal of compliance is accumulating. #美国首个合规BTC永续期货正式上线 $BTC

"Unlocking 680 million, can institutions catch it in advance?" On June 6, $HYPE will unlock $684 million, accounting for 2.54% of the circulating supply. The proportion isn't large, but the absolute amount is significant. Institutions have already started moving early. a16z-related addresses bought over 550,000 tokens in three days, about $40 million. Three wallets withdrew 560,000 tokens from Kraken and directly staked them, worth $41.53 million. In the past two days, institutions have withdrawn over $145 million in total. This is equivalent to catching nearly a quarter of the unlocked amount in advance. On the other side, the whale 0x97f opened a $18.77 million 10x short position, with floating profits exceeding one million. Both bulls and bears are betting on tomorrow. My judgment: there will be selling pressure from the unlock, but it can be absorbed. Institutions have enough ammunition, with staking lock-ups plus low-fee ETFs forming structural support. Short-term shorts have opportunities, but it's not worth heavy bets on a crash. The key is that after unlocking, this batch of chips is very unlikely to come out again. #HYPE：Grayscale ETF launches today, institutions accumulating from multiple channels #HYPE：Grayscale ETF launches today, institutions accumulating from multiple channels