预言家毛毛

$ETH I'm laying it out straight today: Ethereum is in a solid downtrend right now, and any rebound is just an opportunity to short and make money. If you dare to jump in and buy the dip with a hot head, you won't be able to sleep for three days because you'll definitely be losing money. Keep an eye on these two 30-minute charts; from the high of 2404, it dropped sharply down to 2263, losing almost 140 points in a single day, trapping all the retail investors who chased the breakout at the peak. Now, this little rebound can't even hold the 2300 level, with the current price at 2295 being firmly pressed down by the EMA20 moving average. It can't even touch the super trend line at 2313, and the SAR profit-taking point is stuck at 2309. Above, from 2350 to 2400, there are countless trapped positions waiting to break even and escape; every point up has numerous people ready to sell. Look at the volume: when it drops, the trading volume is massive, but during the rebound, the volume shrinks to almost nothing, clearly indicating that there is no new capital coming in to take over. The main force has already sold out, showing no intention of supporting the price. This is the most typical continuation of a downtrend. If you don't short now, wait until it breaks the low of 2263 and accelerates downwards; by then, you won't even be able to catch a hot soup. Let me say something you might not want to hear: from a metaphysical perspective, the bulls have had no chance from the start. The main force deliberately chose to push it up to the high of 2404 on the afternoon before the weekend of the 27th, clearly calculating that retail investors would be greedy and gamble on good news over the weekend. They specifically picked this time to lure in the breakout chasers, only to turn around and dump the price, showing they had no good intentions from the beginning. Looking at these numbers, the high of 2404 sounds like "you will definitely die" in Chinese, clearly sending you a signal to escape, but you insist on rushing in. The low of 2263 means "two people lose out"; if two people go in to buy the dip, both will lose when leaving. Even the current price of 2295 is a signal of a deadlock where "two people will lose." Not to mention, in the larger cycle, the 7-day, 90-day, and 180-day charts are all showing green downtrends, with only a small red line on the 30-day chart painting a false picture. The overall trend is downward, and relying on this small cycle's rebound won't create any waves. And that high of 2404 is just 4 points above the 2400 level, specifically designed to trick those retail investors who rely on technical breakouts, sweeping out all the stop-loss orders and then crashing the price. We've seen too many of these numerical traps; whenever this kind of trend appears, it leads to a mess, and the bulls have no chance to turn things around. Let me give you a more relatable analogy: Ethereum's current state is like a person who just had a heart attack coming out of the emergency room. It looks like there's a heartbeat, but all the blood vessels are completely blocked, and it could have serious problems at any moment. Previously, when it rose from around 2200 to 2400, it was like a physically exhausted person trying to run a marathon, relying solely on a single obsession to keep going. It looked promising, but internally it had already run out of steam. As soon as it hit 2404, it couldn't catch its breath and had a heart attack right there, with a big bearish candle breaking through all the support levels, like blocking all the blood vessels. The current rebound is just a temporary heartbeat after resuscitation; the K-line shows ups and downs, but it hasn't regained any vitality. The short-term moving averages are all in a bearish arrangement, with the EMA5 not even able to hold above the EMA10, like a person who can't even stand up, relying on a ventilator to stay alive. If you jump in to buy now, it's like giving a heart attack patient a big nourishing soup; not only will it not save them, but you'll also lose all your capital. This kind of trend will lead to a slow decline, like a person with a chronic illness gradually draining your capital. By the time you realize what's happening, you'll be trapped and unable to cut your losses. I know many of you will disagree and argue with me, saying that Ethereum's spot ETF has seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, or that Ethereum is a mainstream coin that can't drop. But let me ask you this: if they really wanted to push the market up, would the main force give you such a cheap price of 2295 to comfortably buy the dip? If they really wanted to rise, would they trap all the people who chased the high at 2400 at the peak, giving them no chance to break even? The main force has never been a philanthropist; it won't carry retail investors on its back. It wants to cut off those of you who are holding onto a lucky mindset and buying the dip. If you don't believe me, let's make a bet: if anyone dares to go long with a heavy position now and doesn't lose more than 20 points within three days, I won't believe it. Right now, shorting means you're picking up money on the main force's side, while going long means you're just handing money to the main force as a bag holder. Don't wait until you've lost half your capital and are trapped before regretting not listening to me; by then, it will be too late to cry.

#美伊交火：特朗普称“小插曲” Brothers, the ship on the screen isn’t a prop; it’s really smoking. On the US-Iran front, the cargo ship was bombed, flames shooting high. Officially it’s a “misfire,” but everyone knows beneath the waves of the Strait of Hormuz lies 20% of the world’s oil lifeline. This isn’t a “small incident,” it’s a clamp on the artery of oil—ready to snap at any moment. Trump says: a small incident, no problem, oil prices will “drop like a rock.” The Revolutionary Guard says: the strait remains closed. Who do you believe? One signs executive orders in the White House, the other sets up missiles on the shore. I trust neither, I only trust the K-line. Think about it, brothers: if it really was a “small incident,” oil prices would have already plunged. But they haven’t. They’re sideways, like a snake held at its vital spot, flicking its tongue, waiting. Waiting for a real big news—either a deal is signed and tankers pass through; or another missile flies and the strait is completely locked down. At times like this, the worst is not picking the wrong direction, but rushing to pick a direction. Going long? Afraid Trump really pushes oil prices down; going short? Afraid the strait closes and oil prices skyrocket. Both sides have their knives out; charging in isn’t bravery, it’s suicide. My advice? Step back three paces, sit down, and snack on some sunflower seeds. Wait for the market to reveal its cards. Wait for that bullish or bearish candle to nail the trend on the screen. Then, it’s not too late to enter. Remember: in a game of this magnitude, retail investors aren’t the vanguard, they’re cannon fodder. Cannon fodder’s job isn’t to charge, it’s to survive. #美伊交火：特朗普称“小插曲” #Strategy披露上周出售32枚比特币

$LAB $LAB Brothers and sisters, take a look at this candlestick, then look at my previous post—what did I say? I said it would rise to 20, but you didn’t believe me, you mocked me, called me crazy, said I was just bragging at the peak. And now? 20.71, it even touched a high of 20.71! I bought in at 14 and held all the way up until now, got shaken out three times, climbed back up three times, and today I stand at 19.73, feeling a mix of emotions. It’s not pride, really it’s not, it’s bittersweet, like finally winning a round after being beaten countless times by the market. Look at this LAB, it’s up 327% in seven days, 1246% in thirty days, 102 times in ninety days, 204 times in one hundred eighty days. This isn’t just a coin, it’s a rocket, a spaceship blasting straight through the atmosphere. I admit, I didn’t expect it to go this crazy either. I just saw the super trend golden cross on the weekly chart at 14.50, saw the volume increasing day by day, saw panic in the community reaching its peak, and told myself: trust it one more time, the last time. Then I bought, not heavily, just 20% of my position. Stop loss set at 12.80, take profit targets first at 18, then 20. Unexpectedly, all hit within a few days. What about the indicators now? The super trend is at 16.99, price at 19.73, the deviation is already significant, moving averages are in a bullish alignment, MA5, MA10, MA20 all trending up, but what about MACD? DIF 0.782, DEA 0.833, a death cross, the histogram turned green. What does this mean? It means short-term overbought, a correction is coming. So I’m not greedy, I reduced 70% of my position yesterday at 20.10, raised the stop loss on the remaining 30% to 18.50, letting profits run. Don’t copy me by going all in, and don’t stubbornly hold either. I’m just an old retail trader who understands one principle: after a big rise comes a fall, after a big fall comes a rise, but don’t fight the trend before it breaks. I know many of you missed out and feel bad, like you missed out on a billion. I understand, because I’ve missed out countless times before, missed out so badly I wanted to slap myself. But I want to tell you, in this market, missing out doesn’t lose money, making the wrong move does. At LAB’s current level, do you think it can reach 25? Possibly. But can you handle a pullback from 20 down to 16? If not, don’t chase. If you must chase, go light, set a stop loss, set a 15% drawdown line, and exit if it hits—don’t hold on stubbornly. Medically speaking, this kind of vertical surge is like an adrenaline shot, heart rate soaring to 200, looks exciting, but once the effect wears off, you’re exhausted. Mystically, I woke up this morning and saw the green pothos on my balcony grew three new leaves overnight, bright green, and I felt LAB might still push a bit more. But I also know, if the leaves grow too fast, the roots don’t take hold deeply. Finally, I’m not giving trading advice or bragging. I’m just an old retail trader who’s been in crypto for seven or eight years, with rotten roots and yellow leaves, but when spring comes, new shoots still sprout. If you want to trust me, remember this: the trend is your friend, but don’t marry it. I’ve already reduced my position, leaving the rest to the market. If LAB really hits 25, I’ll post again and buy you virtual beers. If it falls back to 18, I’ll accept it because I’ve already locked in profits. That’s it, I’m going to water my plants now. $LAB

$XAU Gold, oh gold, you little trickster, you rose 0.65% again today, hitting 4511. Looks pretty, doesn’t it? But I’m staring at this four-hour candle, my eyes bloodshot, my heart full of mixed feelings. Look at that peak at 4544, then look at the current price—doesn’t it look like a boxer who’s been beaten black and blue but still stands up and throws a punch? Let me tell you, that punch is fake. The indicators are crystal clear: the supertrend is at 4508, and the price is hovering just three points above it, like a drunk standing on the edge of a cliff, ready to fall with the slightest breeze. MA5, MA10, and MA20 are lined up pressing down at 4517, 4525, and 4528 respectively; the price can’t even stand on the shortest of these lines. What’s this called? The "three big mountains." And the MACD? DIF is 2.8, DEA is 6.8, the death cross is wide open, the histogram is at -8.0, green as a field of chives fertilized with manure. Volume? 1.2k, shrunk a lot compared to yesterday. It’s pulling up a bullish candle but doesn’t dare to increase volume—what’s that if not a sign of weakness? I’ve been trading gold for six years, blown up my account three times, lost about two million. Now when I watch the market, it’s like looking at my ex-wife’s social media—there’s emotion, but no impulse. At this level, I’m decisively short. I placed a short order at 4513, two points above the current price, afraid of missing out. My stop loss is at 4550. Why? Because the 24-hour high is 4544, and I’m giving a six-point buffer for a fake breakout. If it breaks 4550, I admit defeat—losing 37 points, less than 1%, which I can handle. Take profit? First at 4470, just above yesterday’s low of 4458. When it hits there, I’ll cut half my position and hold the rest until 4430. Risk-reward ratio is 1:2. Worth it? I think so. A little mystical note. Today, I went out to buy groceries and passed by a fortune-telling stall. An old man grabbed me and said, "Sir, your forehead is darkened; today you will suffer financial loss." I gave him twenty yuan and said, "You’re right, I’m about to short gold." Medically, it makes sense too—I’ve had a toothache these days, my left wisdom tooth is inflamed and swollen. Traditional Chinese medicine says, "Upper teeth belong to the stomach, lower teeth to the large intestine; you have heat in the Yangming meridian, you need to reduce the fire." Reduce the fire? What fire? The fire of this fake gold rally. Don’t laugh, I’m telling you, the body is way more accurate than candlesticks. I know some will scold me, "Why short when it’s going up so well?" I don’t blame you because you haven’t seen gold’s tricks. This market loves to sneak attacks late at night. You think it’s about to break out, but it suddenly plunges like a needle, turning you into a hedgehog. I’m saying this: if the Fed folks fart tonight, gold could crash below 4470 directly. Believe it and try a light short; don’t believe it, just watch the show. My stop loss is set; if I’m wrong, I’m out; if right, I hold. As I always say, in this market, surviving is a hundred times more important than making quick profits. Short order placed, shutting down the computer, brewing tea, waiting for the wind. $XAU

$SPCX 195.45, down by 91.73%. Brothers and sisters, you’re not seeing things wrong, it’s not 9%, not 19%, it’s 91.73%! From over 2400 USD straight down to 190, this isn’t a market, it’s a mass grave. I’ve been watching this SPCX, my hands are shaking—not from the cold, but from fear and despair. A Pre-IPO asset dropping like this, what does it mean? It means everyone inside is running for their lives, institutions are trampling each other, and even if you hold 100 units, they’re now worth less than 9 dollars. I’m an old trader who’s lost big before, but honestly, I’ve never seen a drop like this. It’s like going to a hospital for a checkup and the doctor tells you your cancer cells have spread 90%, it’s incurable, go home. Look at that super trend line, 383.67, price at 195, nearly 200 points away from that line. What does that mean? It’s the distance between the underworld and the living world. Moving averages? MA5 and MA10 are around 195.6, almost stuck to the current price, but MA20 is still at 745. What does that indicate? It means the average cost over the last 20 days is over 700, everyone is buried, no one can breathe. MACD’s DIF is -512, DEA is -529, the histogram is red at 34.59, but against such huge negative values, that little red bar is like a candle lit in a morgue—scary but meaningless. Volume has picked up, over 100,000 coins, 20 million USD in turnover, all blood-stained chips, all forced selling. Someone is running, running desperately, are you still going to rush in to catch? I won’t waste words. I shorted at 196.00, yes, near the current price, I’m not waiting for a rebound because with this market, a rebound is just wishful thinking. My stop loss is at 250, why not 240? Because there’s a 60-point gap between 190 and 250, enough for the main force to fake a rebound to lure buyers. If it breaks 250, I accept the loss of 50-60 points, that’s the rule. Take profit? I’m looking at 140, why? Because the previous low was 190.25, there’s no support below, 140 is a round number and a psychological barrier. When it hits, I’ll exit half, keep the rest until 120 or even 100. I know some will say, "It’s already down 90%, can it fall more?" I tell you, yes. I’ve seen coins drop 99%, and then drop another 99%. This market has no bottom, only basements, and 18 floors below that. Honestly, writing this hurts me deeply. Because I know those who lost money on this coin might have cried themselves dry. 20,000 in, now only 2,000 left, that pain, I can’t bear it for you. But I have to tell you a harsher truth: if you don’t leave now, that 2,000 might soon become 200. Mystically, this afternoon my faucet suddenly wouldn’t turn off, water kept flowing, I tried wrenching it for a long time but it still leaked. Looking at SPCX’s candlestick, I suddenly felt my money is like that water in the faucet, flowing and flowing until the pipe bursts, until the meter stops spinning. Medically, my blood pressure was measured three times today, each time higher than the last, the last was 168/102. The doctor said if this continues, there will be trouble. I said doctor, my account is already in trouble, whether my blood pressure is or isn’t doesn’t matter anymore. I’m not asking you to thank me or believe me. I’m just an old trader who’s been in the market for seven years, with barely any hair left on my head, each strand earned through lessons. For SPCX, if you can leave, leave. If you can still move, short lightly with me, it might not recover your losses, but at least you’ll lose less. Set your stop loss, don’t hold on stubbornly. Holding a losing position is the dumbest thing in the world—I’ve held on until I was liquidated, until my wife wanted a divorce. Don’t be like me. Short position set, stop loss at 250, take profit at 140. By this time tomorrow, I’ll either stop loss out or take profit and leave. Whatever the result, I’ll update here. Take care, really, take care. $SPCX

$ZEC It has risen more than eight points, almost six hundred now, and this big bullish candle of ZEC is hurting my eyes. Brothers and sisters, do you feel like it's about to take off again? Do you think the spring of privacy coins has arrived? I’m staring at this chart, my mind in turmoil, like I just ate a mouthful of wasabi, tears streaming down my face. I’m not being dramatic; I’ve seen this scene too many times—one big bullish candle, then the next day a big bearish candle that crushes all the late buyers. Look at this chart, the super trend is at 547, the price has already run up to 575, deviating by almost thirty points. It’s like someone jumping from the third floor—before they land, do you really think they can fly? The moving averages look good, MA5, MA10, MA20 all pointing upwards in a row, but have you noticed that today’s volume compared to yesterday hasn’t increased much, even less than on some of the recent down days? What’s this called? It’s called a volume-less rally, a show staged by the whales themselves. The MACD has a golden cross, the red bars are quite long, but the DIF and DEA lines have already climbed to a high level. A golden cross at this position, nine times out of ten, is the last supper. It’s like you’re full from hotpot, and the waiter brings you another plate of tripe—can you still eat it? You can, but after eating it, you’ll have to rush to the emergency room. I’m what you’d politely call an old trader, or less politely, an old dog who’s been beaten by the market a thousand times but still won’t leave. The money I lost could have been a down payment in a second-tier city. I’m still renting my place, and my wife says I’m obsessed with crypto trading. I didn’t argue because she’s right. But sometimes, those obsessed are the clearest when watching the market. This ZEC, rising from just over 500 to 570, looks impressive, but if you zoom out the candlestick chart and look at the weekly and monthly charts, it’s just climbing out of a deep pit, not even reaching the edge. The resistance at 600 ahead is like a wall—any funds that hit it get bloodied. Today’s high was 585, didn’t even touch 590 before pulling back. What’s that? It’s called hesitation. Alright, enough rambling, let’s get to the point. I’ve already placed a short order at 576.50, just a bit above the current price, take it or leave it. My stop loss is at 595. Why? Because the 24-hour high is 585, and I’m giving it a 10-point buffer for a fake breakout. If it breaks 595, it means I’m completely wrong, and I’ll take a loss of less than 20 points. That money is just a tip for the whales. As for take profit, I’m looking at 550 first—that’s the super trend line and a previous consolidation area. I’ll cut half there and hold the rest until 535, near the 20-day moving average. The risk-reward ratio is about 1:1.5—not great, but my position is light, so I can sleep well. If I were heavily invested, I wouldn’t be posting this; I’d be writing my will. A side note: do you know why I especially want to short ZEC today? Because of metaphysics. This morning, I went out to buy groceries and passed a street stall where an old man was selling old books. I flipped through one and found a sentence: "The sun at its zenith begins to decline, the moon at its fullness begins to wane." I didn’t think much of it then, but when I looked at the market after coming back, seeing it up more than eight points, I suddenly understood. Today, ZEC is that "sun at its zenith," that "full moon." It even makes sense medically—I’ve been having insomnia these days, and traditional Chinese medicine says I have "yang not entering yin," meaning yang energy floats outside, looking energetic but actually empty inside. Isn’t this chart the same? The bullish candle floats on top, but there’s no volume underneath to support it, so it collapses with a push. I know some people will curse me for this post, saying "It’s up and you want to short? Are you crazy?" I don’t blame you, really. I was young once too, thinking every bullish candle was a ticket to financial freedom. But later I realized most of those bullish candles are tickets to the end station called "liquidation." I’m not telling you to short with me; I just hope when you think about chasing highs, you stop and think: how much room is there to go up? How much room to fall? Calculate the ratio, don’t just stare at the gains and get jealous. Finally, I’ve placed my short order with stop loss and take profit set. Then I’ll turn off my computer, soak my feet, and go to bed early. Tomorrow when I wake up, either my stop loss will be hit and I’ll admit defeat, or my take profit will be reached and I’ll ask you all to give me a round of applause in your hearts. Remember this: in this market, surviving longer is a hundred times more important than making quick profits. Take care, everyone. $ZEC

$HOME 0.05050, up nearly two points, bright red, festive, right? But when I look at this candlestick, what stirs in my heart is not joy, but sorrow, that instinctive fear born from being deceived by the market too many times. Look at this coin: it rose 112% in seven days, 261% in thirty days, racing from just over two cents to five and a half cents like a wild horse running free, its hooves smoking. But now? It turned down at 0.05366, like a marathon runner who, after crossing the finish line, suddenly weakens and collapses to the ground. I feel sorry for this horse, but I feel even more for those still desperately charging in. Indicators? I know you want to hear them. The super trend is at 0.04315, price is high above it, the deviation rate is already significant, like a kite flying too high—the string could snap at any moment. The moving averages are bullishly aligned: MA5, MA10, MA20 all marching upward at 0.049, 0.048, 0.047—looks beautiful, right? But take a closer look: the recent candlesticks’ bodies are getting shorter, and the tails of the bullish candles are getting thinner. This is called "exhaustion," like someone laughing too long until their facial muscles cramp. The MACD is also red, DIF and DEA hovering around the zero line; although the bars are still positive, compare the height of the MACD bar corresponding to the big bullish candle a few days ago—it’s much shorter now. This is called "bearish divergence," meaning the main players are secretly stabbing you in the back while saying, "No worries, it can still rise." I’ve been trading crypto for nearly ten years; I’ve seen all kinds of monsters and demons. In 2017, NEO rose from a few dollars to over a thousand. I chased the high, thinking I’d get rich, but what happened? Halved, then halved again, and when I finally cut losses, I couldn’t even afford a hotpot meal. Today’s $HOME reminds me of those days, that familiar taste—like leftover chive pockets that smell a bit fragrant but taste sour when bitten. I know many of you still hold long positions, with costs around three or four cents, now doubled, reluctant to sell, hoping to wait longer. I understand you, truly, because I thought the same back then—waiting for ten cents but ended up at one cent. Medically, this is called "greedy retinal detachment"—eyes only see the rise, blind to risk. Mystically? When I left home today, I stepped on a fallen leaf; crack! I looked down and saw it full of wormholes. I immediately understood: $HOME’s market looks intact but is already hollowed out inside. Alright, no more sentimentality, let’s get practical. I’ve already shorted half my position at 0.0510. Why not wait for 0.053? Because I’m not sure it will touch that high again; I’m afraid I’ll be too slow and miss this ride. My stop loss is at 0.0550. Why? Because there’s a buffer of over ten points above 0.05366; if it breaks, it means the main players want to pump another fake rally. Then I’ll take the loss—400 points, less than 8%, I can handle that, maybe just smoke two fewer cigarettes this month. Take profit? I’m eyeing 0.0450 first. Why? Because the super trend line is at 0.04315, and 0.0450 is a round number and psychological support. When it hits, I’ll cut half my position, leaving the rest to run toward 0.0420, near that line, letting profits run. The risk-reward ratio is about 1:1.5—not high, but my position is light, so I can sleep well. To those still hesitating whether to chase longs, I beg you, listen to me. $HOME has nearly tripled from the bottom. The main players hold low-cost chips around two or three cents; they can easily dump at four cents and double their money. Charging in now means you’re catching their chips, paying their bill. I’m not saying this coin won’t rise again, but I dare say at this level, the risk far outweighs the reward—like a black hole, shining brightly but sucking you in with no splash. I’m writing this not to prove how smart I am, but as an old retail trader who’s been cut countless times, with barely any hair left on my head, each strand earned through real money lessons. If my words help you lose even one point less, then writing all this wasn’t in vain. I’ve set my short order, stop loss, and take profit. Then I’ll turn off my phone, go to the balcony for a smoke, and watch the moon. When the price hits 0.042, come back and give me a like, so I know there are others like me who quietly exit while the market is partying. $HOME

$CL Crude oil, crude oil, with this drop, I actually feel more at ease. 92.13, down nearly two points, smashed down from 94.73, like a red-hot iron rod suddenly thrown into cold water, hissing with a puff of white smoke, then falling silent. Honestly, looking at this chart, I feel mixed emotions, like having drunk half a bottle of strong liquor—burning inside, yet a bit like crying. Indicators? Take a look yourselves. The super trend is at 90.52, the price is floating above it, but only two points away, like wearing shoes with soles about to break, ready to slip at any moment. The moving averages are in a bullish alignment: MA5, MA10, MA20 arranged from bottom to top at 91.78, 91.49, 91.35, which looks pleasing, but check the angles of these three lines—they’re flattening out, like a runner getting tired, slowing down, gasping for breath. MACD? Hey, it’s a golden cross, DIF at 0.04 shooting up, DEA still at -0.12, histogram at 0.32, bright red, but I find this golden cross glaring, like a fake fire in winter—looks warm but goes out at a touch. Volume is off too, 1.38 million contracts in 24 hours sounds like a lot, but look at the candlesticks: bearish candles with volume, bullish candles with shrinking volume. What are the big players doing? Sneaking chips out quietly. I’m an old retail trader, been in the game for over ten years, lost enough money to buy a Porsche—of course, now I’m riding a shared bike to post for you. Experience tells me crude oil fears this kind of "should rise but doesn’t" situation the most. MACD clearly has a golden cross, moving averages are bullish, but the price just can’t break 95, turning down at 94.73 like a bull tied with a rope, its neck bleeding but unable to move forward. Why? Because demand is weak, the economy is slowing down, and those oil-producing big shots are secretly shorting themselves. I won’t say more—you might find me nagging—but I know this clearly. I’ve already placed a short order at 92.30, just a bit above the current price, afraid if I wait longer, even this position will be gone. My stop loss is at 95.20. Why so wide? Because above the 94.73 high, I want to give the market makers room for a fake breakout. If it breaks 95.20, it means I’m wrong, I’ll take a loss of 290 points, less than 3%, which I can bear. Take profit? I’m first aiming for 90.00, a round number and also the super trend line position. When it hits, I’ll reduce half my position, leaving the rest to 88.50, which is the lower edge of a previous dense trading zone. This trade has a risk-reward ratio of about 1:1.5—not great, but my position is light, so I can sleep well. Honestly, I didn’t sleep well last night, tossing and turning thinking about the 2019 crude oil crash. Back then, the chart looked similar, MACD golden cross but price didn’t rise, moving averages converged, then one night, bam, from 60 down to 50, so many liquidations, so many people on rooftops. I almost didn’t make it either, but my daughter called me and said, "Daddy, I want ice cream," and that snapped me back. Seeing this chart today, that familiar feeling returned—cold sweat on my back, palms sweating—I know this thing is about to act up again. In metaphysics, this is called a "bad omen." In medicine, it’s "post-traumatic stress disorder." I’m not afraid you’ll laugh at me; I’m afraid you’ll repeat my mistakes. For those of you still holding long positions, especially with costs above 93 or 94, I know it’s bitter for you, like swallowing a piece of iron you can’t swallow or spit out. I beg you, really beg you, even if you don’t follow my short, please move your stop loss forward to 94.80. If it breaks, get out, don’t hold on. This market won’t pity you for losing more; it will eat you to the bone. I’m straightforward and blunt; it’s not pleasant to hear, but if I were fake, I could shout "Long, full position long, aiming for 100," then you lose and won’t blame me. But I don’t want to do that because I’ve lost before, and I know that pain. Finally, I’ve placed my short order, set stop loss and take profit, then I’ll turn off my computer, make a strong cup of tea, and wait until tomorrow morning to check again. Whether you believe me or not is your freedom. But I hope when the price really hits 88.50, you’ll come back to this post and leave me a comment, even just a "hmm," so I know I’m not fighting alone. $CL

$EDGE 0.6436, dropped more than 45%, 45% brothers and sisters! Did you see it clearly? From 1.20 down to 0.64, halved in one day. This isn’t just a drop, it’s a plunge, a cliff dive, like being kicked off the 18th floor! Watching the $EDGE chart, cold sweat soaked through my T-shirt. I can understand ups and downs, but losing half your market cap in one day? What’s the difference from robbery? No, robbery at least has some efficiency; this is a dull knife cutting flesh, then sprinkling salt. Indicators? What’s the point now? But I still have to say, look at that super trend, 0.5314, price now 0.6436, looks like it’s still above, right? But open your eyes and look at the highest point 1.2056, lowest 0.3270, how long that wick is, that scary lower shadow, like an ECG suddenly flatlining then shocked, snapping up, then falling back, finally collapsing at 0.64, barely alive. Moving averages? MA5 0.6508, MA10 0.6533, MA20 0.6484, all pressing down on the price like three tombstones, engraved with "Chasers of highs buried here." MACD did form a golden cross, DIF -0.039, DEA -0.052, histogram 0.0269, bright red, but I tell you, golden crosses after a crash, nine out of ten times are bull traps, the big players testing how many fools are willing to catch the falling knife. Look at the volume, 154 million coins, nearly 100 million USD in turnover, all traded between 1.2 and 0.3 range, what is this? This is a meat grinder! Alright, I won’t curse anymore, really, I can’t. I’m in my forties, heart not good, high blood pressure, doctor says no stress. But I still couldn’t help myself, I shorted at this position. Don’t follow me, really don’t. I’m just throwing in the towel. I opened a short at 0.6450, position not heavy, but already my limit. Stop loss at 0.7200, why? Because the lower edge of the previous platform is around 0.71, if it breaks, it means the big players want to pump one more wave before cutting, then I admit defeat, lose 75 points, I accept. Take profit? I’m watching 0.5000 first, a round number, I’ll take half there, the rest I’ll hold to 0.4000, just above the lowest point 0.3270. Calculate your own risk-reward, I don’t want to, too much calculation might trigger my heart condition. Do you know what I was thinking just now? I remembered the 2017 wave at 94, my coins dropped 60% in one day, I cried in the bathroom for half an hour, came out and my wife asked what happened, I said nothing, just got sand in my eyes. This $EDGE is exactly the same, even worse. Mystically, when I left home today, a black cat ran past me, my heart skipped a beat, then I came back and saw the chart, everything made sense. Medically, my hands are still shaking, not cold, but adrenal exhaustion after adrenaline surge. Every time I see this waterfall chart, my body reacts like this, more accurate than any indicator. I know many of you lost big money on this coin, some may have lost months’ salary in one day, some may have put their kids’ tuition in. I’m not saying this to mock you, I really feel for you, because I’ve lost too, I know that feeling, like watching your own blood flow out of your veins, trying to grab it but can’t. But now I have to say something harsh: don’t wait for a rebound, don’t wait, run if you can, if you can’t, short lightly to recover some losses bit by bit. This $EDGE, the previous high of 1.42 is Everest, you’re halfway up the mountain, think it’s the bottom? No, there’s the Mariana Trench at the foot. One last thing, I’m not a shill, shills wouldn’t let you short after a 45% drop. I’m just an old retail trader, roots rotten, leaves yellowed, but my heart is red, as red as this MACD histogram. Short order placed, stop loss set, the rest is up to fate. When it hits 0.40, come back and give me a like, let me know I’m not alone. $EDGE

$HPE 59.67, down 0.73%. Not much, but paired with that news—"Network operating profit margin dropped from 25% to 21%"—it's like someone sighed softly right next to you. Not angry, not yelling, just disappointed. But you know, this kind of disappointment often hurts more than any bad news. Still, I want to say something for it. Look at that SUPERTREND, no data—not because it doesn’t want to stand, but because it’s still too young, hasn’t had time to draw that line. MA5 is 61.19, hanging lonely overhead like an umbrella that hasn’t fallen yet, though the rain has eased. What about MACD? 0.12, red bars, golden cross clenched in the palm, DIF 0.26, DEA 0.20, the gap isn’t big, but that’s a heartbeat, one beat after another, never stopping. Today’s low was 59.00, then closed at 59.67, a small lower shadow like someone biting their lip, holding back tears. Volume shrank, 48,600 shares, amount less than 3 million, no one is selling anymore, really no one is selling. Everyone has left, only a few are still willing to squat in the corner and keep it company. Medically, this is called "minor injury but not leaving the front line." Profit margin dropped 4 points, not a fracture, not heavy bleeding, just running too long, knees a bit sore. It squatted down, rubbed it, then slowly stood up. MACD golden cross is the joint lubricant being secreted again. No SUPERTREND because it hasn’t entered ICU, it’s still waiting in the outpatient clinic for medicine. You might think those who left out of disappointment are deserters, but it hasn’t fled, it’s still here. I’m not bragging or pretending. I just feel that a stock everyone is bearish on, still holding at 59, still letting MACD turn red, it has backbone. My position isn’t big, but every share is with respect. Current price 59.67, I will buy. Like seeing a child who fell by the roadside, you can’t just walk away, it weighs on your heart. Stop loss at 58.50, that’s where it almost sat down today; if it breaks, I’ll help it up. Take profit first looks at 61.50, touching MA5, that’s the first height it wants to climb to. $HPE, your profit margin is low, but your heart isn’t. I believe in you. Not for anything else, just because you didn’t fall below 59 today.

$DOGE 0.09788, -0.40%, fluctuating just three or four hundred points up or down. This dog coin is really getting more and more boring. You say it’s dropping? Not by much; you say it’s rising? The 24-hour high is only 0.10118, like lice on a bald head—obviously weak. I held my teacup watching for half an hour and almost fell asleep. Indicators? Here, the SuperTrend is at 0.09969, price is suppressed below it, obedient like a well-trained husky. MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all stuck around 0.0985 to 0.0990, like three pieces of chewing gum stuck to the sole of a shoe, impossible to tear off. MACD is even more ridiculous, DIF and DEA are both negative, difference is 0.00008, the bars are so short you need a magnifying glass to see them—what’s this called? It’s called "neither dead nor alive," like when you have a cold, no high fever but a runny nose all the time, annoying, right? The trading volume isn’t small, 4.3 billion dog coins, but look at those candlesticks: bullish candles with no volume, bearish candles with volume, the big players are fighting and retreating at the same time, even kids can see it. I’ve been trading crypto for six or seven years, what big storms haven’t I seen? I chased dog coins at 3 dollars, held them at 5 cents. Now at 0.097, not high, not low, but I tell you, it hasn’t bottomed out. Why? Metaphysically, today is the 17th day of the 4th lunar month, the moon is missing a big chunk, tidal forces are weak, the market lacks passion, perfect for a slow decline. Medically? I had a checkup a few days ago, the doctor said "cholesterol is high, eat less greasy food," and I immediately understood—this chart is greasy too, looks tempting in red but it’s all fat, eating it clogs your arteries. Alright, no more nonsense. I’ve already placed a short order at 0.0980, yes, just two points above the current price, take it or leave it. Stop loss at 0.1020, why? Because the 24-hour high is 0.10118, if it breaks above 0.1020 I’ll consider it tuition, losing 40 points, enough for two boxed meals. Take profit? I’m watching 0.0940 first, take half there, the rest at the 0.0900 round number. Don’t ask why I’m so chill, because with coins like dog coin, you can’t take it seriously; if you do, it just plays sideways with you until you’re exhausted. To those friends still holding longs above 0.10, I feel for you, really. But I have to be blunt—you’re not faithful, you’re just stubborn donkeys grinding the mill. How many times has dog coin been at 0.09-something historically? There will be even lower prices in the future. If you really like dogs, better buy a real dog, it can accompany you on walks. This dog only accompanies you to zero. Alright, that’s all I have to say. Short order placed, stop loss set, the rest is up to the dog market makers. If it goes up, I lose a few dozen points and walk away; if it goes down, remember to come back and give me a like, so this old trader can feel a bit vain. $DOGE