预言家毛毛

$ETH I'm laying it out straight today: Ethereum is in a solid downtrend right now, and any rebound is just an opportunity to short and make money. If you dare to jump in and buy the dip with a hot head, you won't be able to sleep for three days because you'll definitely be losing money. Keep an eye on these two 30-minute charts; from the high of 2404, it dropped sharply down to 2263, losing almost 140 points in a single day, trapping all the retail investors who chased the breakout at the peak. Now, this little rebound can't even hold the 2300 level, with the current price at 2295 being firmly pressed down by the EMA20 moving average. It can't even touch the super trend line at 2313, and the SAR profit-taking point is stuck at 2309. Above, from 2350 to 2400, there are countless trapped positions waiting to break even and escape; every point up has numerous people ready to sell. Look at the volume: when it drops, the trading volume is massive, but during the rebound, the volume shrinks to almost nothing, clearly indicating that there is no new capital coming in to take over. The main force has already sold out, showing no intention of supporting the price. This is the most typical continuation of a downtrend. If you don't short now, wait until it breaks the low of 2263 and accelerates downwards; by then, you won't even be able to catch a hot soup. Let me say something you might not want to hear: from a metaphysical perspective, the bulls have had no chance from the start. The main force deliberately chose to push it up to the high of 2404 on the afternoon before the weekend of the 27th, clearly calculating that retail investors would be greedy and gamble on good news over the weekend. They specifically picked this time to lure in the breakout chasers, only to turn around and dump the price, showing they had no good intentions from the beginning. Looking at these numbers, the high of 2404 sounds like "you will definitely die" in Chinese, clearly sending you a signal to escape, but you insist on rushing in. The low of 2263 means "two people lose out"; if two people go in to buy the dip, both will lose when leaving. Even the current price of 2295 is a signal of a deadlock where "two people will lose." Not to mention, in the larger cycle, the 7-day, 90-day, and 180-day charts are all showing green downtrends, with only a small red line on the 30-day chart painting a false picture. The overall trend is downward, and relying on this small cycle's rebound won't create any waves. And that high of 2404 is just 4 points above the 2400 level, specifically designed to trick those retail investors who rely on technical breakouts, sweeping out all the stop-loss orders and then crashing the price. We've seen too many of these numerical traps; whenever this kind of trend appears, it leads to a mess, and the bulls have no chance to turn things around. Let me give you a more relatable analogy: Ethereum's current state is like a person who just had a heart attack coming out of the emergency room. It looks like there's a heartbeat, but all the blood vessels are completely blocked, and it could have serious problems at any moment. Previously, when it rose from around 2200 to 2400, it was like a physically exhausted person trying to run a marathon, relying solely on a single obsession to keep going. It looked promising, but internally it had already run out of steam. As soon as it hit 2404, it couldn't catch its breath and had a heart attack right there, with a big bearish candle breaking through all the support levels, like blocking all the blood vessels. The current rebound is just a temporary heartbeat after resuscitation; the K-line shows ups and downs, but it hasn't regained any vitality. The short-term moving averages are all in a bearish arrangement, with the EMA5 not even able to hold above the EMA10, like a person who can't even stand up, relying on a ventilator to stay alive. If you jump in to buy now, it's like giving a heart attack patient a big nourishing soup; not only will it not save them, but you'll also lose all your capital. This kind of trend will lead to a slow decline, like a person with a chronic illness gradually draining your capital. By the time you realize what's happening, you'll be trapped and unable to cut your losses. I know many of you will disagree and argue with me, saying that Ethereum's spot ETF has seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, or that Ethereum is a mainstream coin that can't drop. But let me ask you this: if they really wanted to push the market up, would the main force give you such a cheap price of 2295 to comfortably buy the dip? If they really wanted to rise, would they trap all the people who chased the high at 2400 at the peak, giving them no chance to break even? The main force has never been a philanthropist; it won't carry retail investors on its back. It wants to cut off those of you who are holding onto a lucky mindset and buying the dip. If you don't believe me, let's make a bet: if anyone dares to go long with a heavy position now and doesn't lose more than 20 points within three days, I won't believe it. Right now, shorting means you're picking up money on the main force's side, while going long means you're just handing money to the main force as a bag holder. Don't wait until you've lost half your capital and are trapped before regretting not listening to me; by then, it will be too late to cry.

$USELESS The name is really damn accurate. USELESS, useless, and now it really is useless. A 23% drop in one day, from 0.11 straight down to 0.078. If you chased the high yesterday, you’re probably cursing the project team’s ancestors right now. I get you, really. Because I’ve dealt with this coin before, it rose 78% in 30 days, 88% in 90 days, looks so tempting, right? But then, it dropped half back in three days—a classic weed cutter. I won’t bore you with indicators, just look at the SUPERTREND, 0.0975, price now 0.078, off by 20,000 points. This isn’t just falling behind, it’s getting fired outright. The moving averages MA5, MA10, MA20 look like three downward steps; standing on top and looking down, your legs go weak. MACD is even funnier, DIF is negative, DEA is positive, the two lines spread like scissors—this is called a “death cross crossing below zero line,” every seasoned trader knows this pattern usually means another drop is coming. Volume is 223 million coins, sounds impressive, but converted to USDT it’s just over 17 million, what does that mean? It means this coin is worthless! Big money can easily smash the market with a little push. From a market feel perspective, I actually watched it last night, hovering around 0.09 for a long time. I felt something was off—because every time it bounced to 0.095 it came down again, like a spring mattress with a metal plate on top, no bounce at all. Sure enough, this morning it collapsed. From a mystical angle, even more perfect: the coin’s name is USELESS, which when said quickly in English sounds like “you sell us.” You sell to us? So the project team basically told you from the start, we’re here to make you take the bag. Medically speaking, this coin’s movement is like acute myocardial infarction; it pumped so high before (78% in 30 days), like a person on stimulants sprinting 100 meters, then collapsing immediately. Now the heart stops, you need a defibrillator (huge capital) to save it, but look at the volume? Who wants to shock something useless? I’m not pretending anymore, I shorted it. Shorted at 0.082, don’t ask why not at the high, I overslept. Stop loss at 0.095, if it breaks here it might be a fake revival. Take profit first at 0.065, then move stop loss to cost price, second target 0.058. Position size 20%, not daring more, because this coin can go up 50% in a day but also drop 50% in a day. If you want to curse me in the comments, go ahead, I’ll just say: have you ever seen a good project named “useless”? They’re giving you a warning in advance, don’t believe it, don’t cry when you lose. $USELESS

ONDO This market situation really frustrates me, it feels as uncomfortable as swallowing a fly. Brothers, look at this 2-hour chart, today's big bearish candle with a -14.50% drop completely wiped out the gains from the past few days. This is not a mere pullback; it's clearly the main force violently shaking out positions, even offloading! Look at the moving average system: although MA5, MA10, and MA20 previously formed a bullish alignment, the price has now directly broken through MA5 and MA10 and is testing the support strength of MA20. The SUPER TREND indicator hasn't fully turned positive yet, but it's already on the edge. The most critical is the MACD, which after a death cross at a high level, shows rapidly expanding green bars, indicating very strong bearish momentum with bulls having no counterattack power. From a metaphysical perspective, this kind of movement is called "joy turns to sorrow." The more joy in the rise a few days ago, the more miserable the fall now. It's like someone climbing to the mountain top but getting kicked down before enjoying the view. From a medical perspective, ONDO now resembles a severe "hypovolemic shock," where the previous rise has overexerted the buying power, and the current decline is repaying that debt. From a market feeling standpoint, just looking at this chart now makes my scalp tingle; the panic is spreading too fast, with no support orders, only stop-loss orders trampling down. At times like this, never believe the nonsense that "all good news is bad news once it's fully priced in"—this is pure selling pressure. So my strategy is very clear now: absolutely no blind bottom-fishing. I took a light short position near 0.3650, with a stop loss just above 0.3750, because I have to guard against the main force faking a breakout to lure buyers. For take profit, I see two levels: the first target is 0.3500, where if broken, I will close half the position to lock in profits, and keep the other half with a stop loss to aim for the previous low support at 0.3412. I know some will say, "It's already dropped so much, why keep shorting?" But I want to say, until the trend reverses, all bottoms are halfway up the mountain. Even if I get stopped out this time, I accept it because this is the logic of following the trend. What about you? Are you choosing to bottom-fish against the trend to try for a big win, or like me, playing a cautious short? Let's discuss in the comments and see how many warriors are ready to plug the loophole! ONDO

SPACE This chart really makes you anxious, like watching a patient who just had major surgery. Although there's a bit of color today (+0.60%), can you say he's recovered? Absolutely not. Take a close look at this 2-hour chart: the previous drop from 0.0083 to 0.0060 was like a cliff dive. Now these small green candles look to me like a classic "dead cat bounce." The moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20 are tangled and seem to be about to form a golden cross, but the price remains suppressed around MA20, indicating the bulls have no strength to launch a real counterattack and are just testing the selling pressure above. The SUPER TREND indicator is still struggling below the zero line, and the MACD is weakly oscillating near zero. This state is the easiest to lure bulls in, making you think the bottom is in, only to get caught off guard. A bit of metaphysics: this new coin (No.28) currently looks like a "last flicker of life" illusion before fading away. From a medical perspective, the previous crash drained its vitality, and the current sideways consolidation is consuming the remaining bullish energy. The main funds are like blood—they haven't truly returned to the heart but are just circulating at the extremities. From a market feel, I've been watching this chart for half an hour, and the heaviness is overwhelming—there's no passionate volume breakout, just a gloomy oppression. Entering long now is like catching a falling knife; even if it pauses mid-air, you can't be sure it won't drop again the next second. So my current strategy is very cautious, even a bit "cold-blooded." I lightly shorted around 0.00740 with a stop loss just above 0.00765. New coins are volatile, so you have to guard against the main players setting traps. I see two take-profit points: the first target is 0.00680—if it breaks here, I'll close half my position to lock in profits, and take the rest with a stop loss to aim for the previous low support at 0.00640. I know some will say, "It's dropped so much, why still short?" But I want to say, until the trend reverses, all rebounds are just chances to escape. Even if I get stopped out, I accept it because this is a logic of following the trend. What about you? Are you choosing to bottom-fish against the trend for a big win, or playing it safe like me with a slick short? Let's chat in the comments and see how many warriors are ready to plug the gap! SPACE

SUSHI This trend really leaves me speechless, it's a typical "jerk" market, brothers. Look at this 2-hour chart, wasn't the previous rally so tempting? And the result? A big bearish candle smashed down, an 11.40% drop. This is not a pullback; it's clearly the main players unloading and running. The moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all messed up now, the price has broken through all short-term supports, and the SUPER TREND indicator has turned red. What does this mean? It means this uptrend is completely over, and now it's the bears' home court. The MACD has formed a death cross near the zero line, and although the green bars haven't expanded much yet, this is often the calm before the storm, with downward momentum building. From a market feel perspective, this kind of sharp rise and fall pattern is the most damaging. The previous rise had obvious volume, but the current drop is ruthless, showing that the profit-taking players have no intention of supporting the price and just want to cash out quickly. It's like someone climbing a mountain, gasping for breath, suddenly slipping and falling down. Do you want to catch them? Be careful not to fall down with them. I think the current price of 0.1973 is definitely not a bottom; the previous low at 0.1865 is the first test. If that doesn't hold, it's an abyss. My trading idea is simple: don't fall in love with this coin. I placed a light short position around 0.1980, with a stop loss above 0.2050 to prevent a fake breakout trap. The take profit target is first around 0.1870. If it breaks below there, I will continue holding, aiming for the 0.1800 whole number level. I know some people think this is just a shakeout and want to bet on a rebound, but I advise everyone to stay calm. This kind of old DeFi coin, once the momentum is off, can grind you down with a slow decline. Instead of gambling on a small rebound, it's better to go with the trend and short for some profit. What do you think? Do you believe it can stabilize and rebound here, or do you agree with me that it will drop another wave? Let's see the real opinions in the comments! SUSHI

$XLM Watching the XLM market at this hour feels quite unsettling. Earlier, the price surged from 0.1461 to 0.2979, deceiving many retail investors. Today, it plunged 7.43% in a single day. Many friends hastily bought the dip around 0.21 during a minor short-term rebound, but I had already started shorting in batches when the price rebounded to 0.2112. A few days ago, many holders in the community were confident that the consolidation was ending and that the price would soon return to previous highs, even saying I missed out on the subsequent rally by shorting against the trend. I set my stop-loss for shorts at 0.2309, which corresponds exactly to the SUPER trend resistance level. As long as the price cannot effectively break and hold above this level, the overall downward bearish trend will not reverse. The first take-profit target is anchored at the intraday low of 0.1981. If this support is decisively broken by increased selling pressure, the next take-profit target will be adjusted downward to 0.1902. All technical indicators on the chart point to a weak setup. The SUPER trend line is firmly pinned at 0.2309, forming a top resistance. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages all lie above the current price, exerting layered pressure. The MACD remains in negative territory, with bearish momentum bars slowly extending. There is no technical basis for any support or reversal to strength. Years of daily market experience give me a clear intuition: the small sporadic rebounds in recent days lack fresh capital inflows and are purely a false bullish signal created by the main players. They use these small rallies to create an illusion of bottoming, waiting for retail investors to pile in before continuing to sell and push the price down. Let's talk a bit about market cycle metaphysics. The coin’s recent short-term surge coincided with an overextension of bullish momentum at a turning point. After exhausting upward energy, the cycle naturally shifts to bearish control. To explain in simpler medical terms, the previous peak at 0.2979 was like a sudden fever in the body—surface activity was intense, but the main players quietly cashed out and withdrew liquidity. The ongoing decline is like chronic blood loss; short-term rebounds are just temporary supplements and cannot fundamentally repair the weakened market foundation. Currently, many traders heavily invested in the dip still argue with me, insisting that 0.1981 is an unbreakable iron bottom and that a strong rebound will follow the sharp drop. I never persuade anyone to follow my short positions; all my analysis is based on years of live trading and review experience. Whether to reference it is entirely up to each trader, and final profits or losses depend solely on individual trading decisions. If you agree with my view, feel free to consider it; if you remain bullish, you can confidently hold your long positions. I welcome friends with bullish ideas to share your logic in the comments. We will wait for the live market to provide objective answers. $XLM

$ANTHROPIC Previously, riding on the AI company's Pre-IPO listing expectations, the price steadily climbed to the 1950 peak. Most fundamental analysts in the community were confident, firmly believing that after the IPO, the price would break through the 2000 mark. Many even aggressively increased their positions between 1890 and 1920. However, the market did not follow the positive script; it slightly retreated by 2.2% in a single day, closing at 1829.2. The recent few trading days of volatility and weakening have split the community into two opposing camps: the bottom-fishers waiting for the IPO boost and the shorts convinced the positive news has already been priced in. They argue daily about the future trend. Looking closely at the two-hour chart indicators reveals hidden downside risks. The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages cluster tightly between 1846 and 1849, forming a dense resistance band above the current price. The super trend line at 1807.2, originally a defensive support, has turned into a covert selling pressure point after the price surged and then fell back. The current price has decisively broken below all short-term moving averages. The MACD indicator shows the DIF at 7 below the DEA at 10.5, and the histogram has turned green at -7.1. The bulls’ momentum has been continuously exhausted through repeated failed rebounds. Every slight attempt to test the moving averages is immediately met with concentrated selling from profit-taking and forced liquidation, shifting the technical structure from previously strong surges to a weak consolidation. Having handled dozens of Pre-IPO tokens, my accumulated market intuition has long seen through this kind of news-driven hype. At the moment the price surged to the 1950 high, the volume spike and profit-making effect seemed strong, but dissecting the intraday volume reveals that the surge was mainly a false volume created by the main players using the positive news to trade back and forth. Retail investors outside were attracted by the IPO premium rumors and kept buying at high prices. Once the retail funds reached the main players’ expectations, the big money quietly started to reduce positions in batches. I began to build short positions gradually around 1872. At that time, many experienced friends who focused on the sector fundamentals argued with me, firmly believing that a major listing theme could not easily fall. Now, the slowly declining market trend has gradually confirmed my initial risk assessment. In casual reviews, I often discuss the timing patterns of thematic coins over the years. Looking at past similar IPO expectation-driven tokens, after the hype peak, the end of May to early June is always a window for short-term speculative funds to take profits and exit. The 1950 high point holds a large batch of trapped chips from those chasing the hype. Whenever the market slightly rebounds, these holders prioritize cutting losses and exiting. The continuous selling pressure from these unlocked positions drags the price down. According to the usual rhythm of thematic speculation, without fully digesting the trapped chips at high levels, it is difficult to launch a new round of upward breakthroughs. The sporadic small rebounds during the day are merely short-lived speculative moves by short-term traders. Using a simple medical analogy to view the current high-level holders: traders who blindly entered at the peak and got trapped, stubbornly holding longs and refusing to cut losses, are like patients with a low fever who refuse medication and rest. Despite the facts of the positive news being overextended and the main funds gradually exiting, they still fantasize about an instant surge upon IPO listing to recover losses. They keep adding positions as the price falls to lower their cost basis, allowing losses to accumulate slowly. Like a minor illness turning into a chronic low fever, if the IPO news fails to meet market expectations upon release, a large wave of panic selling will emerge, pushing the price further down to test new lows. Every small rebound now triggers a wave of urgent selling from those eager to cut losses and escape. I have never hidden my actual position and risk control points. The average short position entry is fixed at 1872, with a short-term stop loss set uniformly at 1902, just above the previous dense volume resistance. If a sudden positive surprise causes a counter-trend surge breaking the stop loss, I will accept a small loss and exit decisively, never stubbornly holding a large position to gamble on a news reversal. The first take-profit target is the recent low at 1810. After the price effectively breaks below this level, the remaining position’s take-profit will be gradually lowered to 1760 in two tranches. Now, the community’s division is increasingly pronounced: some investors firmly believe the IPO listing is the starting point for a breakout and plan to buy the dip for the long term, while others insist that the positive news is a sell signal, continuing to short on rebounds near moving average resistance. Both approaches have their own logic; there is no absolute right or wrong. Even if the market unexpectedly reverses and hits my stop loss, the pre-set stop loss firmly limits the loss. Friends who follow this strategy can gain practical experience in thematic coin pre-IPO hype, avoiding traps at highs, and position risk control, without blaming me for temporary paper losses. $ANTHROPIC

$TON Holding onto the TON market late into the night, watching it plummet from the stage high of 2.279, with a single-day drop of 14.48%. Friends who were brainwashed by the short-term continuous rise and heavily long above two yuan are now deeply trapped. I started to build short positions in batches when the price rebounded to 1.852. At that time, many in the community were still hyping this pullback as a golden buying opportunity, saying it would soon return to the previous high, frequently criticizing me for being too conservative with my bearish stance against the trend. I set my stop-loss for shorts at 1.947, which coincides exactly with the SUPER trend resistance line. As long as the price cannot effectively hold above this line, the overall downtrend will not change. The first take-profit target is aimed at the intraday low of 1.685. Once this support is broken with volume, the next take-profit target will be lowered to 1.610. All technical parameters on the chart support the bearish logic. The SUPER trend line firmly suppresses at 1.947, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages all hover above the current price, creating multiple layers of selling pressure. The MACD lines continue to run below the zero axis, with the bearish green bars extending and expanding, showing no technical signs of reversal or bottoming. Years of daily market watching have honed my market intuition clearly. The small rebounds that occasionally appear in the past few days are all traps made with existing funds, with no new capital entering. The main force uses these small rebounds to lure retail investors to buy the dip and take chips, then immediately starts a new round of dumping once the chips are in hand. Casual talk about market cycle metaphysics: this round’s peak at 2.279 just hit the short-term fortune turning window. The short-term continuous rise has already exhausted the bullish momentum early. After the fortune cycle turns, the bears naturally take over the market trend. Using a simple medical analogy to analyze the trend: the previous short-term surge was like a sudden fever and excitement in the body. The market looked prosperous, but the main force was quietly cashing out chips and withdrawing liquidity. Now, the cliff-like drop is like acute massive bleeding in the body. Occasional small rebounds are just temporary IV drips, unable to repair the already damaged foundation for the rise. Even now, many players holding long positions firmly believe 1.685 is an unbreakable iron bottom and expect a strong rebound after the big drop. I never force anyone to follow the short position. All analysis is based on years of real trading review and personal experience. Whether to reference it depends entirely on individual trading choices, and profit or loss responsibility lies solely with the trader. If you agree with the idea, feel free to consider it. If you insist on being bullish, you can confidently hold your long positions. Friends who are firmly bullish are welcome to share your long logic in the comments. We will let the real market decide right or wrong later. $TON

$PIEVERSE Sitting late at night in front of the market chart, my feelings are mixed. No one expected PIEVERSE, which surged wildly to 1.2138 just a few days ago, to plummet 17.86% in a single day. Many traders who were caught up in the continuous rally and chased the price at the high level are now deeply trapped. I had already started gradually building short positions in batches when the price rebounded to 0.9055. At that time, the community was full of bullish voices, and many friends holding long positions kept advising me not to go against the trend, saying the main uptrend was just beginning. I set my stop-loss for shorts firmly at 1.0172, which corresponds exactly to the SUPER trend resistance line on the chart. As long as the price cannot effectively hold above this level, the bearish logic remains valid. The first take-profit target is the intraday low at 0.8085. If this support is decisively broken with volume by the bears, the next take-profit target will be adjusted downward to 0.751 accordingly. The weak signals from various indicators on the chart are obvious at a glance. The SUPER trend line is firmly pinned at 1.0172, forming strong resistance. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages are all stacked above the current price, blocking it layer by layer. The MACD indicator has turned downward, with the green bearish bars continuing to expand. Technically, there is no sign of a bottom or reversal. Based on the market intuition developed from watching the charts day after day, the violent rally starting from 0.6713 was a classic tactic by the main players to use hype to drive the price up and unload their holdings. During the surge, volume increased to attract retail follow-up buying, and during the sell-off, volume increased again to crush the price and harvest profits. The occasional small rebounds during the day were traps designed to lure bottom-fishing funds into the market. Taking a moment to discuss the market cycle metaphysics, this short-term doubling rally just hit the turning window where the bulls’ momentum is exhausted. A series of continuous rallies early on has already overdrawn the coin’s subsequent upward potential. After the momentum rotation, a cliff-like drop naturally follows. To explain the trend in simple medical terms, the early short-term surge was like a sudden excess of internal heat in the body—outwardly vigorous and fiery, but behind the scenes, the main players quietly sold off their chips and drained liquidity from the market. The current consecutive sharp drops are equivalent to acute hemorrhaging in the body. The occasional short rebounds are just temporary nutrient infusions that can only briefly ease the situation but cannot fundamentally repair the already broken upward structure. Currently, many traders still hold a hopeful mindset, heavily buying near the current price, firmly believing that 0.8085 is an unbreakable major bottom and that a rebound to recover losses is imminent. I never force anyone to follow my short position strategy. All content is sincere truth drawn from years of live trading reviews. Whether to reference it or not is entirely up to each trader, and final profits or losses depend solely on their own trading decisions. If you agree with my analysis, please consider it cautiously. If you remain bullish, you can confidently hold your long positions. Friends with bullish ideas are welcome to share your reasons in the comments. We will patiently wait for the market to prove right or wrong with actual price action. $PIEVERSE

$QQQ Just looking at QQQ makes me sigh. 735.85, down a bit over one point, doesn’t seem like much, right? But look at this pattern, sliding down steadily from 750, doesn’t it look like the classic boiling frog scenario? It drops a little every day on the surface, and by the time you realize it, it’s already fallen more than ten points. The pre-market trading is even worse, liquidity is as thin as porridge, and big players can easily smash through several price levels with a few trades. Let me tell you, for this kind of ETF perpetual contract, the most feared move is this “slow knife cutting meat” style. I won’t go into a long explanation of the indicators, SUPERTREND is pressing down at 745, the price feels like it’s being held underwater, every time it tries to lift its head for air, it gets slapped back down. The moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20 are stuck together and trending downwards, this kind of “dead knot” pattern I’ve seen many times before, usually followed by accelerated decline. MACD is even more direct, DIF and DEA have a death cross opening downward, the green bars aren’t long but they are “persistent” green, indicating the bears are grinding slowly, calm and steady, which is the scariest. Have you ever seen a tiger hunting? It approaches slowly and then bites the throat in one final breath. We’re at that stage now. From a market feel perspective, I watched for an hour this afternoon, QQQ oscillated repeatedly between 737 and 739, the range of oscillation kept shrinking, and volume kept decreasing (only 1.72k volume today, converted to USDT just over a million, and this is the Nasdaq 100 ETF, this volume shows institutions are watching, only retail traders are fighting among themselves). The probability of this “converging triangle” breaking downward, I’d bet 90%. On a mystical note, last night I saw a short video saying the Nasdaq 100’s P/E ratio is already above the 90th percentile historically, although I don’t fully believe that, every time such a “historical high” appears, my account bleeds. From a medical perspective: QQQ now is like a patient just waking up from major surgery, the anesthesia hasn’t worn off yet, the indicators look okay (only down 0.15% in seven days? Actually down 1.15% today, the 90-day 21% gain was before), but inside the body is inflamed, if you take its temperature (look at the price) it’s still normal, but the white blood cells (bears) are proliferating wildly. By the time the fever shows, it’s already serious. My own position: short at 734.5, why this level? Because this afternoon it hit 733.8 three times without breaking, but the rebounds were weak, so I placed my order at 734.5 waiting for a slight rebound to enter, a comfortable position. Stop loss at 745.5—if it breaks back above SUPERTREND I’ll admit defeat, losing a bit over one point, which I can accept. Take profit first at 725, then move stop loss to entry price after reaching that, and look further down to 718. Don’t ask why I’m so conservative, because QQQ won’t crash 20% in a day like altcoins, but it can fall for a whole week, making you regret every day “why didn’t I short yesterday.” Position size is 30%, not light but not heavy. Finally, to be honest: those who shout “Nasdaq will always rise” every day, please look at the candlestick chart, from the highest point 749 down to 735, it’s been falling for almost two weeks. You say this is a correction? Then where is the bottom of this correction? I don’t know. But I do know one thing: when pre-market trading shows continuous volume contraction and slow decline, there’s probably a big bearish candle waiting next. Some will say I’m a bearish shill in the comments, whatever. I just ask you: how’s your QQQ long position? If it’s good, keep holding. If not, don’t force it. $QQQ

$LTC Litecoin, a veteran mainstream coin, has now slipped to 30th place. At $45.5, it dropped nearly four and a half points again today. Look at this trend—doesn't it look like a washed-up boxer who used to be on brotherly terms with Bitcoin but now is beaten up and bruised, still stubbornly claiming he's fine? Down 11% in seven days, 18% in thirty days, and halved in six months. To those brothers who held from $80 all the way down to now, I salute you as real men, but can we be a bit realistic? On the indicators, SUPERTREND is pressing down at 48.36, and the price is drifting further away from it, like chasing someone who doesn't love you—the faster you run, the farther they get. The moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all twisting downward together, and the gaps between each line are widening. In technical terms, this is called a "bearish divergence," meaning the bears are marching in tight formation while the bulls don't even have a decent fight. The MACD's DIF and DEA are almost sticking together below zero, but the MACD bars are still green—though it's the kind of green that says "I'm here, can't leave empty-handed," without strength. What about volume? 1.16 million LTC sounds lively, but converted to USDT it's just over 50 million, indicating retail investors are running while the big players have long offloaded at the highs. Let's talk market feel. This afternoon I was watching LTC's intraday chart; it hovered around 45.8 for nearly two hours, almost putting me to sleep. Then suddenly a spike plunged to 43.83 and bounced right back. What does this spike mean? It means someone was testing the depth of buy orders below, and after finding only retail stop-loss orders, it’s easy pickings—layer by layer going down. Did you go long? Then you’re just a stepping stone. From a mystical perspective, I calculated that Litecoin’s halving rally was already overdrawn two years ago; now it’s just a squeezed-out rag—what water do you expect to wring out? From a medical angle, look at today’s volatility—from 48 down to 43, such a big swing but closing at 45.5, showing bulls and bears are in a war of attrition. But every time the bulls counterattack, they expend more energy, like in wrestling when you’re pinned down, your arm almost broken, and the referee won’t call it. In this scenario, the side with better stamina is always the bears, because bears only need to push down, while bulls have to push up, expending three times the effort. My current position: short at 45.3, yes, I entered at that recent rebound to 45.3. Why this point? Because I observed that every time it rebounds near MA5, it hits a wall—MA5 is currently at 46.14, but I’m not greedy, placing the order a bit earlier to ensure execution. Stop loss is at 47.5; if this level is broken, it means the short-term bearish structure is broken and I’ll exit, accepting a loss of a bit over four points. Take profit is first at 43.5; once reached, I’ll move stop loss to breakeven, with a second target at 41.2. Position size is light, just 15%. Don’t ask why I’m so cautious—because Litecoin, this old thing, sometimes suddenly resurrects with a baffling rebound, and I don’t want to get fooled. Finally, I want to say something that might get me criticized. To those still hyping Litecoin as "digital silver," are you living in 2017? There are plenty of coins stronger than it now; why would capital come to pump an outdated elder? Do you think institutions are charity workers? They only add to winners, not rescue losers. Feel free to criticize me in the comments, call me a short-seller shill or whatever. I have one principle: my wallet, my responsibility. If you make money, you don’t share with me; if you lose money, don’t blame me. At this level, I’m bearish. That’s it. $LTC